Part 18 of 18 — The Canada Energy Regulator published its new report, Canada’s Energy Future 2022, on June 20, 2023. This is the first time the Federal Government’s energy agency has directly addressed whether the currently planned growth of oil production in Canada to 2030 and 2040 is compatible with keeping increased global warming to 1.5°C.
Part 17 of 18 — Canada’s most recent Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP) published on March 29, 2022, affirms that the aim of Federal Government policy is to continue to maximize our oil production. The government’s plan is clear: Canada’s oil production will continue to increase until – and if – other countries eventually begin to consume less oil.
Part 16 of 18 — The remaining time to change course and fully avoid the rise of surface temperature to levels above 1.5°C is now tragically exhausted. Our governments have deceived us. Even if the most rapid emissions reductions measures are fully implemented over the next seven years by all countries, those measures will probably be unable to avoid us witnessing warming exceed the 1.5°C limit.
Part 15 of 18 — While our government admits that every additional tonne of CO2 released into the atmosphere from our expanding oil production causes additional amounts of economic loss and damage by worsening climatic impacts (the government measures that loss by what it calls the “social cost of carbon”), it argues that the economic benefits of increased oil production outweigh that loss and damage.
Part 14 of 18 — Despite the Supreme Court of Canada’s important decision on March 25, 2021, affirming that the Federal Government has the constitutional power to impose a carbon price on all emitters, the carbon price on oil producers in Canada has in fact been set at a level so low that it provides no disincentive to ongoing rapid oil production increases.
Part 13 of 18 — At a press conference on April 4, 2022, Canada’s Minister of Environment Steven Guilbeault confirmed that Canada’s new climate plan is “based on” increasing oil production: “… the plan we presented last week, the Emissions Reduction Plan, was based on the Canadian Energy Regulator projections that oil and gas production would increase in Canada between now and 2030 …”
Part 12 of 18 — On December 16, 2021, the Minister of Natural Resources, Jonathan Wilkinson, belatedly instructed the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) to conduct an internal study to determine what future level of oil production in Canada would be aligned with limiting warming to 1.5°C.
Part 11 of 18 — We are often told by Ministers and energy economists that, under the Paris Agreement (and under the terms of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) we have no legal responsibility to “count” our downstream emissions as part of Canada’s national emissions that we have undertaken to reduce.
Part 10 of 18 — The Net-Zero Advisory Body was created under the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act, passed into law on June 30, 2021. It might have become an important “independent” voice to provide Canadians with an informed assessment of Federal climate policy.
Part 9 of 18 — Promises by Canada’s oil sands industry to deploy CCUS technology at bitumen extraction sites and production-related operations in Alberta will not significantly curb the rising volume of greenhouse gas emissions contributed by Canada’s oil production if we continue expanding production to 2030 and 2040.