Outline of Proposed Evidence

Outline of Proposed Evidence (opens as a PDF in your web browser)

The Outline of Proposed Evidence provides particulars of the proposed evidence, largely expert evidence in specialized areas of energy economics and climate science, showing the relationship between increasing CO2 and other GHG emissions principally from burning oil, natural gas, and coal, and the rising atmospheric carbon concentration level, and the observed increase in the earth’s average surface temperature.

Part 13 and Appendices M, N, and O, summarize the available evidence about whether Canada’s projected expansion of oil sands production to 2040 can be consistent with the world staying within the 2°C pathway.

Part 14 outlines the available sources of evidence about the growth in the annual level of global CO2 emissions to 2016 and 2017, and explains why global emissions keep increasing.

Part 15 (pages 41-44) deals with the significance of the rising atmospheric carbon concentration level. It outlines the proposed evidence that will show the relationship between increasing global emissions and the rising atmospheric carbon level, and the increase in surface warming.

Part 16 (pages 44-50) explains the available evidence, based on mitigation scenarios reported in recent scientific studies, which show the extreme urgency of achieving deep reductions in the annual level of global emissions by 2030.

Part 17 (pages 50-57) points to recent scientific evidence that explains the global emissions “gap”, which is the difference between the currently projected level of global emissions by 2030 (even assuming all countries including Canada fully implement their existing promises to achieve deep emissions within the next twelve years), and the much lower level required to keep the rise in global warming to less than 2°C.

Part 18 discusses the consequences of climate change. The proposed evidence will identify (i) the impacts that have already occurred and which are well documented; (ii) impacts that have not yet occurred but to which we are irrevocably committed because of the long-term consequences of changes already affecting the atmosphere and oceans, and (iii) projected future impacts that are expected if the rising carbon concentration level is not curbed.

The Outline of Proposed Evidence is filed in the Supreme Court of British Columbia as Exhibit “A” to my First Affidavit (First Affidavit of David Gooderham) sworn the 21st day of November, 2018. The First Affidavit deposes that I wrote the Outline in its entirety, that I verily believe it accurately states the findings, conclusions, and expert judgments set out in the sources related to climate science, and that it truly states my understanding of the principles of climate science based on the materials that I have referred to in the Outline.